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The impact of the off-season is intensifying
2018-07-12
The impact of the off-season continued, and manufacturers accelerated to go to the warehouse to achieve price increases before the peak season. However, the domestic glass spot market has continued to be weak in the near term, and the market production and sales are general. It is expected that in the case of the weak willingness of spot companies to price, the market outlook for glass futures is still not optimistic.
 
Spot continues to be weak
 
"The recent trend of the glass period is weak, and the market confidence is average." Fang Binghua, the steel and building materials group of Founder's medium-term futures, said that the impact of the off-season continued, and manufacturers accelerated their destocking to achieve price increases before the peak season.
 
The chemical group of Ruida Futures Research Institute said that the glass market area held a symposium in turn, and the price increase of the manufacturers boosted the market. The effect was general; some manufacturers continued to increase the operation of returning funds from the warehouse, the price adjustment was flexible, and the market production and sales were general. In the third quarter, the market will face further pressure on glass production due to the increase in production line production. The demand for downstream processing manufacturers is stable, and manufacturers just need to get the goods, and they are holding a wait-and-see attitude.
 
Standing at the current time, Tang Binghua said that the market expects to survive the peak season. First, prices have been raised in the past years. Second, there are certain expectations for real estate completion in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, the large-scale construction of sheds and some housing enterprises accelerated the project turnover, or the traditional peak season demand has room for release. However, the tightness of the real estate industry will make the construction cycle become a trend, thus generating glass demand per unit time. influences. Therefore, the intensity of demand release will also be weakened, thus reducing the impact of the peak season. In addition, the continuous increase in production capacity will put a certain pressure on the later supply, which will also cause the inventory in the off-season to accumulate again. Therefore, although the peak season is expected, it should not be expected.
 
The market outlook will continue to be under pressure
 
In the medium term, Xue Na and Sheng Wenyu, researchers at the Nanhua Futures Research Institute, said that from a fundamental perspective, the supply side, driven by high profits, has produced more production lines this year, while the cold repair process is lower than expected. There will still be trend space in the second half of the year, and supply will be more relaxed.
 
On the demand side, the macro level de-leverage, the social welfare data in the background of the waist, the housing enterprises still pursue a high turnover strategy, the situation of funds leaning to the front end of the construction to improve the pre-sale speed has not changed. Glass demand has been delayed and will not be significantly improved until corporate financing pressures ease.
 
In terms of cost, soda ash prices stabilized after the bottoming out, fuel prices remained high, glass companies' profitability turning point has passed, but still maintains a medium-range profit level, and the cost support is not strong enough.
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